近30年江西双季稻安全生产期及温光资源变化

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2016.5157

中国水稻科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 323-334.DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2016.5157

• • 上一篇

近30年江西双季稻安全生产期及温光资源变化

吕伟生, 曾勇军^*(), 石庆华, 潘晓华, 黄山, 商庆银, 谭雪明, 李木英, 胡水秀, 曾研华

江西农业大学/双季稻现代化生产协同创新中心/作物生理生态与遗传育种教育部重点实验室/江西省作物生理生态与遗传育种重点实验室, 南昌330045;

收稿日期:2015-10-28 修回日期:2016-02-02 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-05-10
通讯作者: 曾勇军
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAD16B04);公益性行业科研专项(201303102);国家农业科技成果转化资金资助项目(2013GB2C500244);江西省高等学校科技落地计划资助项目(KJLD12003);江西省水稻产业体系专项(JXARS-02-03);江西省研究生创新专项资金资助项目(YC2014-B034);中国农业科学院水稻高效栽培技术创新团队项目

Changes in Safe Production Dates and Heat-light Resources of Double Cropping Rice in Jiangxi Province in Recent 30 Years

Wei-sheng LÜ, Yong-jun ZENG^*(), Qing-hua SHI, Xiao-hua PAN, Shan HUANG, Qing-yin SHANG, Xue-ming TAN, Mu-ying LI, Shui-xiu HU, Yan-hua ZENG

Jiangxi Agricultural University/Collaborative Innovation Center for the Modernization Production of Double Cropping Rice/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology, Ecology and Genetic Breeding,Ministry of Education/Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology,Ecology and Genetic Breeding,Nanchang 330045, China;

Received:2015-10-28 Revised:2016-02-02 Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-05-10
Contact: Yong-jun ZENG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明确水稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律,是提高温光资源利用率和实现水稻高产稳产的重要基础。本研究分析了江西不同生态区(赣南、赣中、赣北)15个气象站近30年(1984-2013)逐日日平均气温、日照时数等气象资料,参照水稻生产中常用的安全生产临界温度指标,研究了近30年来不同地区50%和80%保证率下双季稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律。结果表明,1999-2013年(前15年)各地安全生产期及温光资源较1984-1998年(后15年)发生明显变化,且地区间存在一定的差异。早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期平均提前了10 d(气候变化倾向率-4.16 d/10a,下同),早稻安全直播期提前了4 d(-3.17 d/10a),早稻安全移栽期提前了2 d(-2.21 d/10a)。晚稻安全齐穗期延迟趋势不明显(1.16 d/10a),晚稻安全成熟期延迟了8 d(3.56 d/10a)。全年安全生产期天数在早稻覆膜育秧和直播条件下分别延长了18 d(7.72 d/10a)和11 d(6.73 d/10a)。安全生产期内温光资源总体呈温度明显升高、积温显著增加、日照时数无明显变化的特点。监测资料表明,近年来各地区实际生产日期作了相应的调整,但仍与安全生产日期存在较大偏差,因此,推算了近30年各站点80%保证率的安全生产日期,以就近指导各地稻作季节安排、种植方式选择及早晚稻品种搭配。最后,依据气候变化趋势,讨论了农艺措施的可能适应策略。

关键词: 江西, 双季稻, 安全生产期, 温光资源

Abstract:

Ascertaining the change rules of safe production dates and heat-light resources of rice is an important basis for high use efficiency of heat-light resources, and high and stable production. In this study, the daily mean temperatures and sunshine hours during the past 30 years (1984—2013) provided by 15 meteorological stations in different ecological regions in Jiangxi Province (Northern Jiangxi, Central Jiangxi and Southern Jiangxi) were analyzed. According to the critical temperature indices for rice safe production dates, the change rules of safe production dates and heat-light resources of double rice with 50% and 80% guarantee rates were provided. The results showed that the safe production dates and heat-light resources changed obviously between the first 15 years(1984—1998) and the second 15 years(1999—2013), and there were certain differences among different regions. Compared with the first 15-year period, the safe sowing dates of early rice seedlings with film-mulching in the second 15-year period were ten-day ahead of time(with the tendency of -4.16 d 10a^-1, the same as below), and those of direct seedling shifted to four days earlier(-3.17 d 10a^-1); the safe transplanting dates were two-day ahead of time(-2.21 d 10a^-1). For late rice, the safe maturity dates were delayed by eight days (3.56 d 10a^-1), while those of full heading delayed unobviously. The safe production season for the early rice with film-mulching and direct seedling extended by eighteen (7.72 d 10a^-1) and eleven (6.73 d 10a^-1) days, respectively. During the safe production season, daily mean temperature increased obviously, accumulated temperature added remarkably, and sunshine hours changed unobviously.Monitoring data showed that, practical production dates were different from the safe production dates, though the practical production dates were adjusted correspondingly in recent years. So the safe production dates under 80% guarantee rate over the past 30 years were obtained by each meteorological stations, which can be referred in production arrangement, planting patterns and varieties collocation for double rice in the regions nearby. Finally, according to the trends of climate changes, the possible adaptive strategies of agronomic measures were discussed.

Key words: Jiangxi Province, double rice, safe production date, heat-light resources

中图分类号:

S162
S181.6

吕伟生, 曾勇军, 石庆华, 潘晓华, 黄山, 商庆银, 谭雪明, 李木英, 胡水秀, 曾研华. 近30年江西双季稻安全生产期及温光资源变化[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2016, 30(3): 323-334.

Wei-sheng LÜ, Yong-jun ZENG, Qing-hua SHI, Xiao-hua PAN, Shan HUANG, Qing-yin SHANG, Xue-ming TAN, Mu-ying LI, Shui-xiu HU, Yan-hua ZENG. Changes in Safe Production Dates and Heat-light Resources of Double Cropping Rice in Jiangxi Province in Recent 30 Years[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2016, 30(3): 323-334.

图/表 9

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地区 Region	经度 Latitude/°	纬度 Longitude/°
赣北 Northern Jiangxi
九江Jiujiang	116.00	29.70
修水Xiushui	114.57	29.03
鄱阳Poyang	116.67	29.00
玉山Yushan	118.25	28.68
南昌Nanchang	115.85	28.68
赣中 Central Jiangxi
临川Linchuan	116.29	27.95
新干Xingan	115.40	27.77
南城Nancheng	116.63	27.55
吉安Ji^’an	114.98	27.12
永新Yongxin	114.23	26.95
赣南 Southern Jiangxi
兴国Xingguo	115.35	26.33
赣县Ganxian	114.02	25.87
崇义Chongyi	114.30	25.70
会昌Huichang	115.78	25.60
信丰Xinfeng	114.93	25.38

地区 Region	经度 Latitude/°	纬度 Longitude/°
赣北 Northern Jiangxi
九江Jiujiang	116.00	29.70
修水Xiushui	114.57	29.03
鄱阳Poyang	116.67	29.00
玉山Yushan	118.25	28.68
南昌Nanchang	115.85	28.68
赣中 Central Jiangxi
临川Linchuan	116.29	27.95
新干Xingan	115.40	27.77
南城Nancheng	116.63	27.55
吉安Ji^’an	114.98	27.12
永新Yongxin	114.23	26.95
赣南 Southern Jiangxi
兴国Xingguo	115.35	26.33
赣县Ganxian	114.02	25.87
崇义Chongyi	114.30	25.70
会昌Huichang	115.78	25.60
信丰Xinfeng	114.93	25.38

安全生产期 Safe production date	地区 Region	线性方程 Linear equation	相关系数 Correlation coefficient	倾向率 Tendency /(d·10a^-1)
早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期SSDF	赣北NJ	y = -0.4301x + 930.3	-0.3389	-4.30
	赣中CJ	y = -0.3935x + 855.7	-0.3001	-3.94
	赣南SJ	y = -0.4241x + 909.9	-0.2764	-4.24
	平均Mean	y = -0.4159x + 898.5	-0.3339	-4.16
早稻安全直播期 SSDD	赣北NJ	y = -0.2624x + 614.3	-0.2751	-2.62
	赣中CJ	y = -0.2643x + 616.1	-0.2885	-2.64
	赣南SJ	y = -0.4238x + 930.1	-0.3303	-4.24
	平均Mean	y = -0.3168x + 720.1	-0.2978	-3.17
早稻安全移栽期STDER	赣北NJ	y = -0.2398x + 583.2	-0.2532	-2.40
	赣中CJ	y = -0.2259x + 522.9	-0.2526	-2.26
	赣南SJ	y = -0.1964x + 487.5	-0.2224	-1.97
	平均Mean	y = -0.2207x + 541.2	-0.2802	-2.21
晚稻安全齐穗期SFHLR	赣北NJ	y = 0.2937x - 321.0	0.3632^*	2.94
	赣中CJ	y = 0.0304x + 205.4	0.0332	0.30
	赣南SJ	y = 0.1597x - 48.01	0.1597	1.60
	平均Mean	y = 0.1613x - 54.53	0.0376	1.61
晚稻安全成熟期 SMDLR	赣北NJ	y = 0.3876x - 469.7	0.4392^*	3.88
	赣中CJ	y = 0.3843x - 461.9	0.4454^*	3.84
	赣南SJ	y = 0.2952x - 275.9	0.3878^*	2.95
	平均Mean	y = 0.3557x - 402.5	0.4668^**	3.56

安全生产期 Safe production date	地区 Region	线性方程 Linear equation	相关系数 Correlation coefficient	倾向率 Tendency /(d·10a^-1)
早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期SSDF	赣北NJ	y = -0.4301x + 930.3	-0.3389	-4.30
	赣中CJ	y = -0.3935x + 855.7	-0.3001	-3.94
	赣南SJ	y = -0.4241x + 909.9	-0.2764	-4.24
	平均Mean	y = -0.4159x + 898.5	-0.3339	-4.16
早稻安全直播期 SSDD	赣北NJ	y = -0.2624x + 614.3	-0.2751	-2.62
	赣中CJ	y = -0.2643x + 616.1	-0.2885	-2.64
	赣南SJ	y = -0.4238x + 930.1	-0.3303	-4.24
	平均Mean	y = -0.3168x + 720.1	-0.2978	-3.17
早稻安全移栽期STDER	赣北NJ	y = -0.2398x + 583.2	-0.2532	-2.40
	赣中CJ	y = -0.2259x + 522.9	-0.2526	-2.26
	赣南SJ	y = -0.1964x + 487.5	-0.2224	-1.97
	平均Mean	y = -0.2207x + 541.2	-0.2802	-2.21
晚稻安全齐穗期SFHLR	赣北NJ	y = 0.2937x - 321.0	0.3632^*	2.94
	赣中CJ	y = 0.0304x + 205.4	0.0332	0.30
	赣南SJ	y = 0.1597x - 48.01	0.1597	1.60
	平均Mean	y = 0.1613x - 54.53	0.0376	1.61
晚稻安全成熟期 SMDLR	赣北NJ	y = 0.3876x - 469.7	0.4392^*	3.88
	赣中CJ	y = 0.3843x - 461.9	0.4454^*	3.84
	赣南SJ	y = 0.2952x - 275.9	0.3878^*	2.95
	平均Mean	y = 0.3557x - 402.5	0.4668^**	3.56

安全生产期与地区 Safe production date and region	50%保证率 50% guarantee rate						80%保证率 80% guarantee rate
安全生产期与地区 Safe production date and region	30年 30 years /(M-D)			前15年 1st 15 years /(M-D)	后15年 2nd 15 years /(M-D)	变化天数 Changed days/d	30年 30 years /(M-D)	前15年 1st 15 years /(M-D)	后15年 2nd 15 years /(M-D)	变化天数 Changed days/d
早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期 SSDF
赣北NJ	03-10	03-14	03-06	-8		03-23	03-27	03-17	-10
赣中CJ	03-09	03-13	03-05	-8		03-21	03-25	03-15	-10
赣南SJ	03-01	03-07	02-25	-11		03-16	03-21	03-10	-11
平均Mean	03-07	03-11	03-02	-9		03-20	03-24	03-14	-10
早稻安全直播期SSDD
赣北NJ	03-29	04-01	03-27	-5		04-06	04-09	04-04	-5
赣中CJ	03-27	03-30	03-25	-5		4-5	04-07	04-03	-4
赣南SJ	03-23	03-27	03-20	-7		04-03	04-04	03-31	-4
平均Mean	03-26	03-30	03-24	-6		04-05	04-06	04-02	-4
早稻安全移栽期STDER
赣北NJ	04-13	04-14	04-11	-3		04-20	04-22	04-20	-2
赣中CJ	04-10	04-11	04-09	-2		04-16	04-17	04-16	-1
赣南SJ	04-03	04-05	04-02	-3		04-13	04-13	04-13	0
平均Mean	04-09	04-10	04-07	-3		04-16	04-17	04-16	-1
晚稻安全齐穗期SFHLR
赣北NJ	09-22	09-19	09-23	+4		09-14	09-11	09-14	+3
赣中CJ	09-22	09-23	09-21	-2		09-15	09-16	09-14	-2
赣南SJ	09-27	09-26	09-27	+1		09-18	09-18	09-17	-1
平均Mean	09-23	09-23	09-24	+1		09-15	09-15	09-15	0
晚稻安全成熟期SMDLR
赣北NJ	10-31	10-29	11-02	+4		10-22	10-16	10-25	+9
赣中CJ	10-31	10-29	11-03	+5		10-23	10-20	10-29	+9
赣南SJ	11-08	11-06	11-10	+5		10-31	10-29	11-03	+5
平均Mean	11-03	11-01	11-05	+5		10-25	10-21	10-29	+8

近30年江西双季稻安全生产期及温光资源变化

Changes in Safe Production Dates and Heat-light Resources of Double Cropping Rice in Jiangxi Province in Recent 30 Years

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育秧方式与地区 Seedling method and region	50%保证率 50% guarantee rate					80%保证率 80% guarantee rate
育秧方式与地区 Seedling method and region	30年 30 years	前15年 1st 15 years		后15年 2nd 15 years	变化天数 Changed days	30年 30 years	前15年 1st 15 years	后15年 2nd 15 years	变化天数 Changed days
早稻覆膜育秧 SF
赣北NJ	235	228	240	+12	213		205	224	+19
赣中CJ	237	230	243	+13	216		209	228	+19
赣南SJ	252	245	260	+15	229		221	238	+17
平均Mean	241	235	248	+13	219		212	230	+18
早稻直播DS
赣北NJ	215	211	220	+9	199		191	205	+14
赣中CJ	218	213	224	+11	200		196	209	+13
赣南SJ	230	224	235	+11	211		208	218	+10
平均Mean	221	216	226	+10	203		198	210	+12

项目 Item	日均温度 Daily mean temperature							≥10℃活动积温 Active accumulated temperature ≥10℃
项目 Item	30年 30 years /℃			前15年 1st 15 years/℃	后15年 2nd 15 years/℃	变化 Change /℃	倾向率 Tendency /(℃·10a^-1)	30年 30 years /℃	前15年 1st 15 years/℃	后15年 2nd 15 years/℃	变化 Change /℃	倾向率 Tendency /(℃·10a^-1)
早稻覆膜育秧SF
赣北NJ	23.83	23.42	24.24	+0.82	0.51^**		5085.98		4998.67	5173.30	+174.63	109.74^**
赣中CJ	24.20	23.83	24.56	+0.73	0.47^**		5221.79		5143.28	5300.30	+157.02	100.62^**
赣南SJ	24.19	23.82	24.57	+0.75	0.45^**		5535.26		5449.84	5620.69	+170.85	103.79^**
平均Mean	24.07	23.69	24.46	+0.76	0.48^**		5281.01		5197.26	5364.76	+167.50	104.72^**
早稻直播 DS
赣北NJ	24.59	24.25	24.94	+0.69	0.46^**		4893.82		4825.43	4962.21	+136.77	90.59^**
赣中CJ	25.01	24.72	25.30	+0.58	0.39^**		5012.71		4954.67	5070.75	+116.08	78.46^**
赣南SJ	24.95	24.67	25.23	+0.56	0.35^**		5264.21		5205.58	5322.84	+117.26	73.87^**
平均Mean	24.85	24.55	25.16	+0.61	0.40^**		5056.91		4995.23	5118.60	+123.37	84.52^**

项目 Item	日均日照时数Mean daily sunshine hours							总日照时数Total sunshine hours
项目 Item	30年 30 years /h			前15年 1st 15 years/h	后15年 2nd 15 years/h	变化 Change /h	倾向率 Tendency /(h·10a^-1)	30年 30 years /h	前15年 1st 15 years/h	后15年 2nd 15 years/h	变化 Change /h	倾向率 Tendency /(h·10a^-1)
早稻覆膜育秧 SF
赣北NJ	5.60	5.45	5.75	+0.30	0.14		1194.39		1162.77	1226.01	+63.23	29.04
赣中CJ	5.16	5.17	5.15	-0.02	-0.02		1114.08		1116.28	1111.88	-4.40	-3.69
赣南SJ	5.03	5.04	5.02	-0.02	-0.02		1151.61		1154.25	1148.98	-5.27	-5.04
平均Mean	5.26	5.22	5.31	+0.09	0.03		1153.36		1144.43	1162.29	+17.86	6.77
早稻直播DS
赣北NJ	5.76	5.67	5.85	+0.18	0.07		1146.62		1128.78	1164.46	+35.68	13.12
赣中CJ	5.39	5.45	5.33	-0.12	-0.10		1080.09		1091.73	1068.46	-23.27	-19.85
赣南SJ	5.29	5.33	5.25	-0.08	-0.08		1115.64		1124.54	1106.75	-17.79	-16.26
平均Mean	5.48	5.48	5.47	-0.01	-0.04		1114.12		1115.02	1113.22	-1.79	-7.67

地区 Region	年代 Periods	主体种植方式 Main planting patterns		早稻播种期 SDER (Month-Day)	早稻直播期 DSDER (Month-Day)	早稻移栽期 TDER (Month-Day)	晚稻齐穗期 FHDLR (Month-Day)	晚稻成熟期 MDLR (Month-Day)
地区 Region	年代 Periods	早稻 Early rice		早稻播种期 SDER (Month-Day)	早稻直播期 DSDER (Month-Day)	早稻移栽期 TDER (Month-Day)	晚稻齐穗期 FHDLR (Month-Day)	晚稻 Late rice
赣北 NJ	1980s	手插	手插	03-25-30		04-25-30	09-13-18	10-13-23
	1990s	手插	手插	03-23-28		04-23-28	09-15-20	10-15-25
	2000s	手插、抛秧	手插	03-20-25		04-20-25	09-15-20	10-15-25
	现在Nowdays	抛秧、机插、直播	手插、抛秧	03-20-25	04-01-05	04-15-20	09-15-20	10-15-25
赣中CJ	1980s	手插	手插	03-23-28		04-23-28	09-15-20	10-15-25
	1990s	手插	手插	03-20-25		04-20-25	09-15-20	10-15-25
	2000s	手插、抛秧	手插、抛秧	03-18-23		04-18-23	09-15-20	10-15-25
	现在Nowdays	抛秧、机插	抛秧	03-17-22		04-15-20	09-12-17	10-12-22
赣南SJ	1980s	手插	手插	03-25-30		04-25-30	09-15-22	10-15-25
	1990s	手插	手插	03-20-25		04-20-25	09-15-20	10-15-25
	2000s	手插、抛秧	手插、抛秧	03-20-25		04-15-20	09-15-20	10-15-25
	现在Nowdays	抛秧	抛秧	03-20-25		04-15-20	09-10-15	10-10-20

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